THE northern Victoria resource manager Mark Bailey says flows into major storages have been ‘‘marginally higher than anticipated’’ since the last seasonal determination update.
But they are well below average for this time of season.
‘‘And the catchments continue to dry with very little recent rainfall,’’ Dr Bailey said.
The Murray system has moved from 78 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 82 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon systems have increased from 70 per cent HRWS to 74 per cent HRWS.
The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases by 2 per cent HRWS to 11 per cent HRWS.
The Bullarook system has increased from 100 per cent HRWS and 25 per cent low reliability water shares (LRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS and 51 per cent LRWS.
The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.
Dr Bailey said the modest improvements came from a combination of more water reaching the major storages than was estimated and lower than expected system losses in some systems.
He also said the climate outlook continued to favour drier conditions.
‘‘The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely across all of northern Victoria during the October to December period,’’ Dr Bailey said.
‘‘The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring and the threshold for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has been exceeded. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically reduces rainfall in south-eastern Australia.’’