The Coalition stronghold in the state seat of Murray, on the NSW side of the river, was rocked to its foundations on March 23 when fringe party candidate Helen Dalton swept away 87 years of conservative rule.
On the Victorian side, the rock-solid Federal seat of Murray has been radically changed and renamed Nicholls. It now embraces areas much closer to Melbourne and has had regional/rural territory carved out of it.
Damian Drum won the seat for the Nationals in 2016 after a showdown with Liberal candidate Duncan McGauchie.
He must be a lot more concerned with Labor and any independent wanting to step up and have a crack.
In the federal NSW seat of Farrer, former Federal Health Minister Sussan Ley, forced to resign from the front bench over an expenses scandal, must be even more concerned after being booed off the stage at a water rally in Albury, where she lives.
Not only was she driven from the stage, protesters also cut off sound to her microphone when she was trying to speak.
Water cost the Coalition the state seat here and Farrer will almost certainly feel that fallout.
Just take a look at Ms Ley’s gruelling schedule in the coming weeks and it’s clear she’s not being complacent.
“I’ve been in Albury, Finley, Berrigan, Deniliquin, Griffith, Hay and Balranald this week, in Wentworth today and Urana tonight,” she said.
“It’s the type of schedule I’ll have right up to polling day and that’s because this election is about hearing what people want from their MP, not what I want to tell them.”
After winning Farrer by about 200 votes when she was first elected in 2001, Ms Ley said she never took her role for granted – even though she’s secured more than 50 per cent of the primary vote in the subsequent five elections.
“I suspect there will be a range of candidates in Farrer, and we should never forget how important that is in an open and democratic country like ours,” she said.
“I have to re-apply for my job every few years and that’s exactly how it should be.”
Across the river, the federal seat of Murray has been a conservative stronghold since its inception in 1949.
In 1996, it was taken over by Liberals candidate Sharman Stone, who quickly established herself as a high profile member throughout her subsequent four-term reign.
When Ms Stone retired in 2016, the seat was a Coalition battleground with the conservatives securing more than 67 per cent of the vote, 35.34 per cent to Mr Drum.
In May, he’ll be taking his second shot at the seat – now the newly-formed Nicholls.
The new seat has shifted to the east, losing the Loddon area to Mallee and Euroa and Violet Town to Indi, but gaining Puckapunyal, Seymour and Broadford.
This change cut the electorate’s geographical size by almost 5000 square kilometres and increased the number of constituents by almost 3000. While this change means Mr Drum will be gaining voters closer to Melbourne, he didn’t believe this would affect support for the Nationals.
“Steph Ryan is the state member for that area and she is very well-regarded,” he said.
“So it’s not as though the people of Seymour and Broadford are not used to voting for the National Party, they are.”
Mr Drum said he hoped the NSW election shake-up made voters consider the benefits of voting for independents or minor parties.
“They turned away from the Nationals in NSW and elected a Shooters candidate and now they’re asking her to fix the problem of water,” he said.
“They’re saying, ‘We’ve voiced our frustration, what have we actually got.’
“The Nationals have done so much work in relation to water. We can’t make it rain but we are working extremely hard to do everything else possible but these minor parties have made such big claims – what are they actually going to do?”
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