In the sports media business it is important to declare exactly who or what you think will win something and then just simply lock it away, leaving no wriggle-room to try and change your predictions as an event rolls.
So as horse racing season quietly rolls into action, now is the time to declare exactly who will win the Spring Racing Carnival's five biggest races in a few months’ time.
I know what you're all thinking: "Alex, you're an extremely astute AFL punter, but are you sure you have what it takes when it comes to thoroughbreds?”
Part of that is, of course, correct; my pre-restart AFL bets include West Coast and Brisbane to win the flag (now favourite and third favourite), Lachie Neale to win the Brownlow (an unbackable favourite after we launched into him at $11), Josh Kennedy to win the Coleman (leading the standings) and Hawthorn to miss the eight (anyone that thought Hawthorn would be good this season is silly).
Now it is time to show the world my abilities extend to the turf — today we will time capsule our top selections for the Spring Racing Carnival, and closer to the races being run we will be back with our specific bets.
Caulfield Cup
Russian Camelot ($13) is the most exciting horse in the country, and expect him to light up the carnival in its first massive event. The Danny O'Brien-trained stallion romped to a huge win in the SA Derby as a three-year-old, winning by two lengths after being well back coming around the turn. The final 200 m was something else, so expect a late dash to win this 2400 m classic. Russian Camelot is favourite for the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, but Kyabram-born trainer Danny O'Brien said just this week genetic testing revealed the stallion was suited to 2000-2400 m — based on that, it is hard to see the Melbourne Cup being the target this prep. O'Brien also expressed scepticism he would be ready for a Cox Plate, so the smart money is on a Caulfield Cup victory.
The Everest
Nature Strip ($3.50) has reached new heights since running fourth in last year's Everest as a $21-shot, and I expect it to win the richest turf race in Australia. Looked the winner at the 200 m-mark of last year's Everest before being swamped, but came back to Flemington a few weeks later to absolutely bolt in the VRC Sprint Classic. Confidently won the Challenge Stakes and the TJ Smith in the autumn to confirm its reputation as the nation's best sprinter. Even at $3.50, backing anything else would be a crime. Looking for even a touch more value, Bivouac ($8) confidently knocked off a number of potential Everest rivals in the Newmarket in March, although I think it would need to find another level to beat Nature Strip.
Cox Plate
We can cross a few out here; All-Star Mile-winner Regal Power ($13) has always underwhelmed me a touch, Aidan O'Brien's Japan ($13) did not win through its recent English preparation, and, as previously mentioned, we expect current favourite Russian Camelot ($11) might not quite be ready to win the world's best weight-for-age race. The more we thought this one through, the more we came back to O'Brien's Magic Wand ($15), which ticks a lot of boxes. She came to Australia last year on the back of strong Irish Group One form, and ran fourth in this race, 10th in the 3200 m Melbourne Cup before winning the MacKinnon Stakes over the 2000 m. Since then she's won a Group One back home, and this jet-setter has raced in five different countries in the past year, so she's no stranger to travelling. At $15 — a better price than many rivals with major knocks — this is the bet.
Golden Eagle
Much like Nature Strip in The Everest, it is going to be pretty hard to look past Alligator Blood ($4.50) in the Golden Eagle. The Gator is — quite simply — a winning machine, already boasting 10 wins from 12 starts, including four Group race wins. The four-year-old gelding was a touch exposed as a short-priced favourite in its last start, the All-Star Mile, but we're prepared to forgive that run as it came at the end of a long preparation against older, fitter horses. Loving Gaby ($8) is a personal favourite, but she seems to enjoy the 1200 m a bit more than this 1500 m stuff, while if I was to look away from Alligator Blood it would be for Rubisaki ($8), who has won her past six races including two Group races at 1400 m.
Melbourne Cup
It's a tough race to call on an annual basis and it's basically like throwing darts — so I'm right in my wheelhouse. Immediately thinking back to last year's race, Surprise Baby ($11) has to be your top pick. It was shuffled back from barrier 20, and was basically last turning into the straight before absolutely scorching home to finish fifth — another 50 m and it would have won. Trainer Paul Preusker did not run it through the autumn to ensure peak condition for the Cup, and if it can draw a half-decent barrier and even vaguely reproduce last year's run, it will be mighty tough to beat. Due to a little pandemic I like to call COVID-19, we really aren't too sure if European horses will be able to hit the spring carnival. Even without coronavirus, it was hard to see the world's best stayer Stradivarius coming to Flemington, but make no mistake, it would be far shorter than $26 if its status was confirmed — and it would also win by a mile. And just keep an eye on last year's winner Vow And Declare; at $26 currently, why couldn't it come back and win it again as a five-year-old?