Victoria's prison population grew from 3651 adult prisoners to 5915, a 62 per cent rise, in the 20 years to the end of June 2024, outpacing the 39 per cent population growth over the same period, according to prison population analysis by the state's Sentencing Advisory Council.
The state's prison population numbers were directly associated with the number of people being held on remand - those who have been charged but not released on bail, council director Stan Winford said.
Prisoner numbers remained stable between 3500 to 4500 from 2004 to 2011 before significant growth, peaking at more than 8100 prisoners between 2012 to 2019, followed by a decline from 2020 to 2024, when the population reduced to under 6000.
Corrections Victoria data shows the prison population has since increased from 5915 at the end of June 2024 to 6614 to the end of August 2025, an extra 700 prisoners in 16 months.
In 2005, there were 649 people, 18 per cent of the prison population, on remand in Victoria, but that figure has tripled to 1994 people, or 34 per cent of prisoners, 20 years on.
About 61 per cent of prison sentences were less than six months, while one-in-three people handed prison terms had already served their entire sentence on remand.
"In custody, usually, remanded prisoners don't do programs, and while they're not doing any rehabilitation, they're also having interruptions to housing and employment," Mr Winford told AAP.
"Short sentences can lead to longer term, problematic outcomes in terms of people's lack of access to programs, employment, housing - the sorts of things that are going to prevent them having contact with the system in the future."
The rise of remand followed reforms to parole after the 2012 murder of Jill Meagher, the abolition of suspended sentences in 2014, more restrictive bail laws following the 2018 Bourke Street stabbings, tougher bail laws in March and yet-to-be-implemented bail tests for repeat serious offenders and a "second strike" rule.
Jailing of non-violent offenders is "straining" the system, with prisons predicted to reach capacity by October 2025 in Queensland, August 2028 in South Australia, July 2029 in Western Australia, November 2028 in Tasmania, and December 2036 in NSW.
Analysis from the Institute of Public Affairs found state and territory governments spent $6.8 billion in 2023/24 on the construction and operation of prisons, with the figure jumping 50 per cent in a decade when adjusted for inflation.
The conservative think tank calculated the cost of housing one prisoner to be $436 a day or $159,510 a year.
Victoria was floated as a possible solution to the looming shortfall, potentially netting more than $290 million with its prisons calculated to reach their designed capacity by 2040.
Premier Jacinta Allan dismissed the idea, saying she won't be taking advice from the IPA on the operation of Victoria's corrections system.
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