More than half of voters who previously voted for the coalition, approximately five million people, wouldn't consider voting for them if a federal election were held now, according to think tank Blueprint Institute.
More than two-thirds of people said they wouldn't consider giving their first preference to the coalition, which included 44 per cent of former coalition voters, according to the commissioned YouGov poll of 5000 people in July.
"If the coalition is to regain government through an improvement in the primary vote, it will need to do more than appeal to its base or convince undecided voters," the Blueprint Institute's report, Winning Back the Coalition's Missing Middle, found.
"It must expand the number of people who are willing to consider its candidates as an option."
Half of those who had voted for the coalition but not at the 2025 election were critical of climate change, renewable energy and housing affordability policy offerings.
Only 16 per cent of former supporters believed the conservative alliance was serious about addressing climate change.
The research presented more dire news, finding that there was an "extremely limited opportunity to increase its primary vote among those who would currently consider voting for one of its candidates".
Four in five ex-coalition voters and just over 70 per cent of independent voters agreed the Liberals and Nationals needed a more comprehensive policy suite before they stood a chance to pick up their vote.
Climate change policies were identified as a key area to address a disconnect with voters, as more than half of ex-voters wanted them to keep their commitment to a net-zero emissions target.
The Liberals and Nationals are split on the net-zero by 2050 target, with more conservative and firebrand members wanting the commitment scrapped.
But inner city and moderate Liberals who have called for stronger climate action policies have been largely eradicated from metropolitan areas across the country.
The coalition fared well on economic management, national security and foreign affairs, which overlapped with the priorities of their former supporters.
Those who left the conservative parties were predominantly parents with young children and full-time workers in their twenties to forties, the survey found.
Blueprint Institute co-founder Lachlan Crombie said the coalition would need to gain a broad appeal to voters rather than just a narrow sliver.
"That means appealing to young families who are not particularly ideological, but have turned away from the coalition because it's drifted away from representing the values of modern Australia," he said.
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