Sport

GVL Data | Grand final rematch by the numbers

By Matthew Kappos

Jun 20, 2024

After dispatching Shepparton in a top-of-the-table clash, can Jack Evans and Echuca take out Kyabram in a grand final rematch? Photo: Aidan Briggs Photo by Aidan Briggs

Echuca and Kyabram will meet on Saturday at Victoria Park for the first time since the two sides faced off in the 2023 grand final.

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On that day, the Murray Bombers walked away six-goal winners.

While it would be no surprise to see Echuca return to the grand final stage come September, given the premiers are back on top of the table having won nine of their first 10 games, the same can’t necessarily be said for the Bombers, who have experienced a modest first half of the year.

Ky finds itself in sixth position with six wins and four losses so far this year, more regular-season losses than their three in 2023.

So, while the teams’ proximity on the table may be different, let’s look at what things have changed and which have remained the same, statistically, for the two incumbent grand finalists.

Last year Kyabram ranked in the bottom half for disposals per contest (287.4), while Echuca led the league (337.8) but this year Kyabram have caught up to Echuca in terms of how often they move the ball, improving to 346.3 disposals per game, almost level with Echuca (348.6), the two trailing only Mooroopna in this metric.

When looking to explain Ky’s reduced performance this year, hit-outs stick out as a key factor. The Bombers are winning almost five more hit-outs per contest than in 2023 (38.5 to 43.4), but have been unable to win them with accuracy, directing the hit-outs to advantage less often than last year (7.6 times compared to 5.6).

Meanwhile the Murray Bombers are winning far more hit-outs than last year (45.7 compared to 58.1) but this has translated to more clean possessions, with their hit-outs to advantage improving from 10.9 to 15.1.

The way both teams defend also seems to have shifted. Echuca is making fewer tackles (60.9 to 52.5) than in the past but is taking slightly more intercept marks (16.1 to 17.5), with the Murray Bombers overall earning more intercept possessions (54.3 to 69.3).

Kyabram has matched Echuca in intercept possessions (50.1 to 69.4) but is earning the ball more on the ground, making more tackles (48.8 to 58.2) but taking fewer intercept marks (17.5 to 13.2).

Both teams are turning the ball over more often than in 2023, but Kyabram (55.3 to 67.7) has had a more pronounced increase in this area than Echuca (61.1 to 65.3).

This all paints Echuca as a team that has maintained many of factors that led it to success last year, while Kyabram appears to be a different beast to the one that came within a game of the championship.

In what now shapes as an intriguing clash, it will be up to the Bombers to take the game to the favoured Echuca side and see if they can improve their most important statistic of all: wins.