The national media has carried the predictions pointing to a rising number of deaths due to heat stress, massive costs to the economy and threats to housing.
The 270-page report also has something to say about agriculture, although as you might expect, it’s not good news.
The report points to potential water shortages, notes in several places “over-allocation” of water resources and has large sections on potential heat stress on livestock.
Curiously, the page on Summary of exposures, vulnerabilities, impacts and risks has sections on cropping and horticulture and forestry, but does not include a section on impacts on the dairy industry.
“Regional agricultural areas crucial for specific commodities and regional food security remain vulnerable,” the report says.
“Perennial crops, due to their long-term water needs, are likely to be particularly vulnerable to future water scarcity, especially as demand for high-value crops requiring reliable water grows.
“Livestock systems, particularly dairy, are also vulnerable to water shortages.”
Here are some of the observations from the report:
Agricultural productivity
“Projected increased water security challenges will impact agriculture through intensifying water competition and may result in reduced water allocations,” the report says.
“Water quality risks from salinity, algae, bushfires and increased rainfall variability will further challenge agricultural productivity.”
Adaptation
“Water management is one of few adaptations available to mitigate climate-driven water scarcity risks, and current actions are considered inadequate in preparing for long-term declines or managing periods of acute water scarcity,” the report says.
“Management frameworks and reporting often focus on the amount of environmental water delivered, rather than the environmental outcomes achieved (eg. a wetland inundated to facilitate a bird or fish-breeding event), or the sufficiency of environmental water allocations to achieve environmental outcomes, as may be specified in water plans which is critical to assure ongoing ecosystem health and resilience during drought.”
Future risk
“By 2050, the climate risk to the primary industries and food system is expected to increase to high/very high,” the report says.
“The sustainability and prosperity of the system will be challenged in many areas, with additional risks cascading from impacts in the natural environment system, including potential ecosystem collapse and the loss of associated ecosystem services.
“Increasing impacts across primary industries will cascade and increase risks to other systems, such as the economy, trade and finance and health and social support systems.
“For example, impacts may be felt in public health and safety, including in reduced food security in some areas, and in the mental health of producers and associated communities.
“Dryland agriculture will continue to be challenged by rainfall variability and extreme heat, reducing soil moisture and crop yields.
“Horticulture will face ongoing severe challenges from increased extreme heat, affecting produce quality and marketability, as well as challenges from insecure irrigation water.”
Livestock
“Livestock animal health and the availability of feed will be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall,” the report says.
“Heat stress in cattle and sheep, driven by increasing temperatures and more frequent hot spells, is likely to reduce productivity and animal welfare.
“Heat stress in both dairy and beef cattle can reduce livestock productivity and welfare through changes in feed intake, behaviour, fertility and metabolism; in extreme conditions, mortalities can also occur.
“Increasing temperatures will result in cattle requiring increased water intake (+13% per 2.7°C of warming), compounding water availability challenges, with increased temperature also increasing evaporation.
“The area of heat stress conditions for tropically adapted beef cattle could more than double at a global warming level of +3.0°C.
“The impacts of heat stress events in cattle are exacerbated when hot temperatures continue for several days in a row and night-time temperatures do not decrease sufficiently for animals to shed heat accumulated during the day.
“Most regions of Australia are projected to experience more hot spells.
“Changes in temperature at critical times of the year are likely to impact sheep productivity.
“Heat exposure during joining months is projected to rise with increases in global warming levels.
“Conversely, an increase in minimum temperatures will marginally decrease cold exposure at lambing, with the largest declines in cold environments in Tasmania, and in the highlands in Victoria and NSW.”
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