ALL eyes will be on Farrer tomorrow as Australia goes to the polls, with the possibility the seat could change hands for the first time in 18 years.
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It will likely be neck-and-neck between Liberal stalwart Sussan Ley and the independent Kevin Mack.
They are the stars of a dramatic election race polarised in the seat by one boiling issue – water.
The same issue cost the Coalition the state seat of Murray (it parallels Farrer) earlier this year. It was the first time in more than 80 years a conservative candidate had not won.
In the race for Canberra, Ley and Mack have been splashed across national headlines in recent weeks, as the seat may also have the potential to decide who governs.
Across the river in the newly-formed seat of Nicholls, the mood will be a little less nail-biting, with the safe Nationals seat tipped to stay in Damian Drum’s hands.
But since March 23, when 87 years of local conservative rule was swept away by fringe party candidate Helen Dalton in a turbulent NSW election, nothing is certain.
Just ask Ms Ley – at the beginning of the election race, Farrer was considered a safe Coalition seat, held by a comfortable 20.5 per cent margin.
Now, some betting agencies have the Liberal MP tipped as the underdog, with Sportsbet placing Mr Mack in the lead thanks to a wave of widespread support, largely from disgruntled irrigation farmers.
But the independent candidate has refused to count his chickens before they’ve hatched and said the result would be up to voters tomorrow.
“While I remain the bookies’ tip on Sportsbet, I have slipped behind the Liberal incumbent on tab.com.au,” he said. “It doesn’t actually matter where I am with the bookies. The most important thing is where I am with the voters and I hope I will be their number one.
“In the past 10 weeks we have made a difference. We have made water one of the top five issues on the national agenda and Farrer is now in play as potentially a marginal seat.”
Mr Mack has been tightlipped until recently about who he would back in the event of a hung parliament.
But after facing a barrage of attacks from Liberals claiming he was supporting the Greens and Labor, he’s broken his silence.
“In the case of a hung parliament I would support a Coalition government only if it supports a Royal Commission into the Murray Darling Basin Plan,” he said.
“I have been attacked at every turn about being an independent, but that is essentially an attack on all voters because they are the ones I am fighting for – to give a no-strings-attached independent voice on every issue based on its merits.”
But Ms Ley isn’t buying it.
“He’s now ‘declaring his hand’ as a ‘conservative’ but he’s had a foot in the camp of the so-called ‘climate change’ independents,” she said.
“Those financing his campaign are suing the MDBA for more irrigation water, his other backers want more for the environment.”
If tomorrow’s race for Farrer is as tight as expected, success will come down to preferences.
With the UAP preferencing Ms Ley ahead of Mr Mack, she may just have the upper hand.
Labor’s Kieran Drabsch has the Greens second and Mr Mack third.
But it wasn’t mutual for Greens candidate Dean Moss, who caused shockwaves by preferencing Mr Mack and Sustainable Australia candidate Ross Hamilton before Labor.
As for Mr Mack, he has chosen not to preference.
If the Albury hopeful is elected to the crossbench tomorrow, Ms Ley said it would likely be with Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.
But she warned unless he miraculously held the balance of power on his own, Farrer’s future could be in jeopardy.
“Sure as day Labor, with support from the Greens and other independents, will lift my 1500GL cap on water buybacks, abandon investment in water saving infrastructure and scrap the test on negative social and economic impacts,” she said.
Looking to Nicholls (formerly Murray), Mr Drum secured the seat at the 2016 election with a two-candidate preferred buffer of 11 per cent.
But the other candidate was also a Coalition representative, Liberal Duncan McGauchie – the next best after that was Labor’s Allan Williams who polled almost 15 per cent.
This year, there is no Liberal rival, making Mr Drum essentially untouchable.
Not that he’s blasé about it.
“Every vote is crucial and I don’t take a single one of them for granted,” he said. “Doing my utmost for every individual I was elected to represent is what has been at the core of being the Member for Murray.
“If I was elected as the member for the new seat of Nicholls this is how I would continue.”
Senior Journalist