The forecasts for global beef production were released last week in the USDA’s quarterly Livestock Products and Trade publication.
MLA global supply analyst Tim Jackson said report offered a useful insight into both the current state of play in beef production and the factors affecting the future outlook for global trade.
Global production is forecast to remain stable at just under 59.5 million tonnes.
The forecast attributes this almost entirely to the upward revisions to American beef production, with expectations that it would now decline only three per cent in 2024, instead of the six per cent previously forecast.
Mr Jackson said this points to a continued decline in the American cattle herd, and a much longer herd liquidation than previously expected.
Although the USDA has not yet released its January herd number it is likely to be the lowest in several decades, while the female slaughter rate remains well above 50 per cent.
Outside the US, changes are likely to be less drastic, Mr Jackson said.
Brazilian production is expected to lift by three per cent from last year to 10.8 million tonnes in 2024. This is partially due to an uptick in female slaughter and a marginal potential destock, but the increase is mostly due to a long-running increase in the Brazilian herd.
Production in Argentina is expected to decline by six per cent to 3 million tonnes in 2024, as continued dry conditions have caused multiple years of smaller-than-expected calf crops and impacted the availability of stock feed, making supplementary feeding considerably more difficult and pushing down carcase weights.
Despite this decline in production, Mr Jackson said it was possible that Argentinian beef exports could lift in the new year, as Argentina’s new government has lifted several restrictions on beef exports implemented by the previous administration.
Australia is forecast to see the largest increase in production, with USDA numbers pointing to an per cent lift in production to 2.35 million tonnes.
Mr Jackson said once again, this points to the fact that Australia is a major player in beef exports while being a relatively small beef producer.
With exports forecast to rise by 10 per cent to 1.69 million tonnes in 2024 according to the USDA, Australia will be the second largest beef exporter after Brazil.
“MLA’s upcoming Cattle Industry Projections (set for release on February 26) will provide additional information around the current situation in Australia specifically, but the USDA release shows that Australia is in a good position to compete internationally, especially with the continued decline in the American herd,” Mr Jackson said.
