Tasmania Police Commander Nathan Johnston confirmed expert reports have provided compelling evidence that the remains likely belong to Celine Cremer.
Ms Cremer was last seen in the Philosopher Falls area near Cradle Mountain in the state's northwest on June 17, 2023.
The 31-year-old was reported missing by her family on June 26, sparking a major search involving police and SES ground crews, specialist swift water rescue personnel, drones and a helicopter.
Police believed she had set off on a walk and her car was found in the falls car park a day after the missing person's report was filed.
No further trace of Ms Cremer was found until a privately funded search resumed in December 2025, when members of the group located her phone near Philosopher Falls.
Search teams made a breakthrough in January after a bushwalker discovered bones on a stretch of Arthur River, about 2km from the tourist's last known location.
Five bones, teeth, a Honda car key, and items of clothing were found during subsequent searches near the location.
The recent breakthroughs were made in an area of dense bushland that police only surveyed by helicopter in earlier searches.
"Tasmania Police extends its sincere condolences to Ms Cremer's family and loved ones," Mr Johnston said.
"While this provisional confirmation will not ease their loss, we hope the outcome will provide them with some measure of clarity and closure."
A report will be prepared by the coroner, who will officially determine the identity of the remains in their findings.
"We want to thank community members for their ongoing support and interest in Celine's case," Mr Johnston said.
"I want to acknowledge the extensive efforts of search and rescue personnel, partner agencies and volunteers who dedicated significant time and resources during the many search phases."
Ms Cremer's family have been awaiting confirmation of the remains since being alerted to the discovery.
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