Brazil and China emerged as key players — Brazil as the dominant exporter and China as the top importer — reshaping global trade flows.
“Brazilian beef exports have jumped from 2.3 million metric tonnes in 2019 to an estimated 3.6 million in 2024, largely driven by China’s growing appetite for beef,” RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
“Brazil now accounts for roughly half of China’s beef imports, highlighting its pivotal role in global supply.”
However, the report warned that volatility remained a defining feature of the market.
“Companies that can manage this volatility and capitalise on favourable market conditions will be best placed for success,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Both Australia and the United States saw historically low beef cow inventories in recent years, contributing to record cattle prices.
Despite these challenges, Rabobank expects continued trade growth through the remainder of the decade, driven by expanding consumption in Asian markets such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
South American producers, particularly Brazil, are forecast to meet much of this rising demand through productivity gains and improved herd management.
Meanwhile, established exporters — including Australia, the US and New Zealand — are likely to focus on value-driven growth, leveraging reputation, quality and sustainability credentials.
Although global beef production increased 5.5 per cent over the past five years, Rabobank predicts a temporary slowdown, particularly in the US, Brazil and Europe.
This is expected to support cattle prices in the near term before production rebounds on the back of genetic improvements and heavier carcase weights.
“With lower global supplies and continued consumption growth, we’ll see rising tension between domestic and international markets,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Strong export demand, especially from the US and Asia, will continue to underpin beef and cattle prices in key producing countries.”
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