After 16 rounds and ahead of their home clash with fourth-placed Sydney Roosters, the 13th-positioned Broncos are on 14 points with five wins, nine losses and two byes.
They play the Sydney Roosters at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night without five-eighth Ezra Mam and captain Adam Reynolds.
Mam has not fully recovered from an AC joint injury and Reynolds suffered a calf injury against South Sydney in round 15 and has not been named. Young gun Tom Duffy will play five-eighth and veteran Ben Hunt is at half.
The Broncos are in a worse ladder position than the 2006 Wests Tigers outfit that missed the finals after winning their maiden title the year before.
After 16 rounds, the Tigers were 10th on 16 points, with seven wins and a bye.
The light at the end of the tunnel for the Broncos is that after round 16 last year they won eight of their last 10 games to make the finals before a stunning three victories to claim the title.
Dynamic fullback Reece Walsh had a phenomenal back-end of the season to lead the Broncos to title glory.
Walsh is yet to catch fire this season but after 10 days in camp with Queensland coach Billy Slater there is a hope he is on the cusp of another magic run, like last year when he came out of game-three camp a reborn player.
Unless there is a repeat, the Broncos will be the first defending premiers since the 2006 Wests Tigers to watch the finals as spectators.
The Tigers and the 2005 Canterbury outfit, who were on 17 points after round 16, are the only NRL defending premiers apart from the 2010 Melbourne side not to play finals after winning the competition.
The Storm played for no points after having their 2009 title stripped, but had won nine matches by round 16 in 2010 and would have been third had they played under normal circumstances.
The 1999 Broncos, who famously won one of their first 10 games after winning the title the year before, had 15 points after round 16 but were in the midst of an 11-game winning streak that took them to the finals.
The current Broncos outfit are in no rich vein of form. They have lost six games in a row and face six top-eight sides in the coming seven weeks.
Broncos hooker Cory Paix is aware the pundits have written the Broncos off.
"It is a bit of fire in the belly for me personally," Paix said.
"The one thing on our side is that we are a well connected group ... and it has been no different going through this tough period. It is full steam ahead and we hold ourselves to high account.
"There are no excuses. Every time you put a Broncos jersey on you are expected to go out and do a job. Hopefully we can do that this Friday."
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