New Zealand set for historic prime minister vote

Key backer Mark Mitchell says he believes Mr Luxon will survive that meeting and continue on.

If a no-confidence vote succeeds, Mr Luxon will be replaced just three months out from the November 7 election.

The signs are pointing to National turfing the former Air New Zealand chief executive.

Radio NZ political editor Jo Moir says the 56-year-old's leadership is "hanging by a thread," while NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan - who broke the story of increased discontent on Monday - said Mr Luxon surviving was "incredibly unlikely".

Such an outcome would be extraordinary and historic.

Unlike Australia, which had four contested prime ministerial changes without an election between 2010 and 2018, New Zealand governing parties tend not to roll their leaders in office.

The last such occasion was in 1997, when National's Jenny Shipley convinced her colleagues to ditch three-time election winner Jim Bolger.

Not since 1943 has a mid-term prime ministerial change produced a winning election for the governing party.

Adding intrigue to Wednesday's meeting, there is no obvious contender to replace Mr Luxon.

Deputy Leader Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, Transport Minister Chris Bishop and Mr Mitchell, the police minister, have all been mooted as replacements.

Mr Mitchell denied this on Newstalk ZB on Wednesday morning, saying he sat with Mr Luxon until 11pm on Tuesday night "making sure he's in the strongest possible position".

"Discussions will be about calling out (disloyal MPs) and making sure there is loyalty to our leader," he said.

"He's been a great prime minister during very difficult global times ... I'm behind him 110 per cent."

No candidates came forward during frenzied leadership speculation back in April, when Mr Luxon moved and won a confidence motion to clear the air.

This week's crisis is made even more remarkable by the fact that National is currently in an election-winning position.

The conservative party currently governs in coalition with the support of free-marketers ACT and populists NZ First.

Almost every poll in recent months shows a decent lead for that right bloc over a left bloc of opposition parties Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party.

The rise of upstarts Opportunity in recent weeks has challenged that orthodoxy, though the party has failed to win MPs at three previous elections.

The key factor behind National's implosion appears to be their own cratering support, from 38 per cent at the 2023 election to a polling average of about 29 per cent.

If replicated on election day, that figure would end the careers of a string of MPs, including senior ministers.

Many argue National's popularity slide is down to Mr Luxon, who has shocking personal favourability ratings.

In 2023, Kiwis were enthused by the former executive's business credentials and voted him in after he campaigned to turn around the economy and reduce government debt.

Mr Luxon has failed to land either pledge, and has rubbed many the wrong way with a series of elitist or out-of-touch comments.

One such episode came in Rotorua last month at a small business forum, when Mr Luxon told struggling operators they were "negative" and should instead be "retooling and radically disrupting your business".

The next week, he defended his use of a defence force plane to return home after a party fundraiser - a shocking look for a leader who previously was forced to return a housing entitlement to stay at his own mortgage-free property.

Still, he may hold on, if his rearguard convinces MPs not to change course before the election.