World

UK warns of strongest El Nino 'in living memory'

By William James

Aug 21, 2026

Cracked rice fields in the Aceh Besar area, Indonesia — A dramatic rise in Pacific sea-surface temperatures could harm crops around the world. -EPA

The developing El ‌Nino weather pattern is likely to be the strongest in living ‌memory, Britain's Met Office national weather forecaster says.

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El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface ‌temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds.

It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last between nine and 12 months.

Its effect ‌on weather ‌globally can ⁠threaten crops around the world.

The year 2026 was going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Nino in living memory and what was probably the largest such event since the 19th century, the Met ⁠Office said.

The Met ‌Office said 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year ‌on record.

Their latest forecasts showed a more than 3C rise in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures later in 2026.

A typical El Nino causes a rise of 1C to 2C, with 2C considered a major event.

"This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences," said Adam Scaife, head ⁠of long range forecasting.